2008-10-09

Arbitrage opportunity?


In a previous posts, I argued that Europe has yet to wake up to its own banking problems. According to Bloomberg estimates, European banks are responsible for almost 40% of global bad asset write offs. Therefore, Europe should also be doing something similar to the Paulson plan. Instead, European governments are scrambling in isolated efforts.

The graph I have posted together with this text shows this week's % change in the S&P500 vs the Eurostoxx. If Europe had done its share - a Pan European bailout plan - I would argue that you ought to be buying Eurostoxx and selling SP futures in a typical arbitrage trade. However, because that is not the case, I believe the gap between the two will remain.

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